There were loud calls from the real estate industry to extend the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit when the original Nov. 30 deadline neared. Now we're in shouting distance of the extended deadline -- April 30 to sign a contract -- and it's been pretty quiet. The National Association of Realtors, for instance, tells me it hasn't been lobbying for a re-extension.
But mortgage publisher HSH Associates notes that most of the people taking a poll on its blog "overwhelmingly support" more time. As of 10 p.m. Monday, 84 percent said they were "depending on" an extension.
HSH notes a quote from economist Robert Shiller (of Case-Shiller fame) in a New York Times story about the credit:
"You don't make drug addicts go cold turkey," Mr. Shiller said. "The credit interferes with the market in an arbitrary way, but ending it now would be psychologically powerful. People will be in a bad mood about buying a house." He advocates phasing it out gradually.
Not all home buyers will be sorry to see the credit go -- whenever that may be. Wonk reader Jelena, for instance, offered up an example of market interference:
"In the past few weeks I've been observing a peculiar trend in AA and HO counties in the below 400K segment," Jelena wrote in a comment. "Many new listings are coming up that already were for sale a year ago but did not sell. And the prices are around Zestimate or even higher. It seems the sellers expect the buyers will scoop up anything because of the looming tax credit expiration date. Sadly, they're frequently right - quite a few homes are being sold above their true value."
September 8, 2008
In the wake of the economic downturn, housing slump and mortgage meltdown, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, a comprehensive bipartisan piece of legislation was signed into law late July. This legislation is designed to assist those affected by the current housing and mortgage swamp. It also aims to restore confidence in the nations largest mortgage repositories. The legislative package will enact several provisions, including:
¨ The HOPE for Homeowners Act , which would establish a new initiative at the FHA to prevent foreclosures for hundreds of thousands of families at no cost to American taxpayers;
¨ The S.A.F.E. Mortgage Licensing Act, wh ich would create a federal registry and establish minimum national standards for all residential mortgage brokers and lenders;
¨ The Foreclosure Prevention Act, which would provide assistance for communities devastated by foreclosures, foreclosure counseling for families in need, programs to help returning soldiers avoid foreclosure, FHA modernization, and mortgage disclosure enhancements
¨ The Housing Assistance Tax Act of 2008, which would provide tax benefits for homeowners, homebuyers, and homebuilders aimed at helping the housing housing market recover.
¨ Treasury Emergency authority, which would presumably shore up the confidence of the financial markets in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks
¨ Revenue provisions to pay for the legislation, consistent with responsible fiscal policy.
¨ Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008, which would create a new, effective regulator for the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) so that these vital institutions can safely and soundly carry out their important mission of providing our nation's families with affordable housing. In addition, this legislation would create a new program at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) that would help at le ast 400,000 families save their homes from foreclosure.
Homebuyers scramble as mortgage rates jump
The era of record-low mortgage rates is over.
The average rate on a 30-year loan has jumped from about 5 percent to more than 5.3 percent in the past weeks. As mortgages get more expensive, more would-be homeowners are priced out of the market -- a threat to the fragile recovery in the housing market.
And if you wanted to refinance at a super-low rate, you may have missed your chance. Mortgages under 4 percent are still available, but only for loans that reset in five or seven years, probably to higher rates.
Rates are going up because of the improving economy and the end of a government push to make mortgages cheaper.
For people putting their homes on the market this spring, rising rates may actually be a good thing. Buyers are racing to complete their purchases and lock in something decent before rates go even higher.
"We are seeing some panic among potential buyers who have not found houses yet," said Craig Strent, co-founder of Apex Home Loans in Bethesda. "They're saying: Man, I should have found a house three weeks ago or last month when rates are lower."
It's all about affordability. For every 1 percentage point rise in rates, 300,000 to 400,000 would-be buyers are priced out of the market in a given year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The rule of thumb is that every 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates reduces a buyer's purchasing power by about 10 percent.
For example, taking out a 30-year mortgage for $300,000 at a rate of 5 percent will cost you about $1,600 a month, not including taxes and insurance. But the same monthly payment at a rate of 6 percent will only get you a loan of $270,000.
Good economic news is the first reason rates are rising: U.S. government debt, a safe haven during the recession, is losing its appeal as investors turn to stocks and riskier corporate bonds.
Lower demand for debt means the government has to offer a better interest rate to sell its bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which is closely tracked by mortgage rates, has hovered around 4 percent, the highest since June.
The second reason is the Federal Reserve. The Fed recently ended its program to push mortgage rates down by buying up mortgage-backed securities. When demand from the central bank was high, rates plummeted to about 4.7 percent for much of last year. And business boomed for mortgage lenders as homeowners raced to refinance out of adjustable-rate mortgages and into fixed loans.
Many analysts forecast rates will rise as high as 6 percent by early next year. If they go much higher, the already shaky housing recovery could stall. And that could slow the broader economic rebound.
In a normal market, with home prices steadily rising, a jump in rates doesn't cause a big dip in demand. That's because people know their homes will eventually rise in value, and are willing to accept a higher mortgage payment.
But now home prices are flat nationally and still falling in some places. Potential buyers are nervous about jumping in.
"In this environment, any rise in mortgage rates does significant damage because people don't think they're going to get their money back" if prices fall, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
For people who bought their first home in the 1980s, when rates stayed over 10 percent for several years, paying 6 percent for a home loan may seem like a steal. But it's coming as a shock to many first-time homebuyers this spring.
In Overland Park, Kan., Sirena Barlow checks mortgage rates online once a day. She's been shopping for a something around $130,000 and wants to sign a contract this month, to take advantage of a tax credit for first-time homebuyers.
Barlow, a legal assistant, has already told her landlord she's moving, so her stress level is high. Her real estate agent, Michael Maher, has been doing his best to calm Barlow and other clients, but rising rates are making them anxious.
"It's like giving hyperactive kids ice cream," he said. "It has really taken the ones who are focused on buying and amped them up a little bit."